MeteoGroup – Summer 2017 (June – August) Outlook

Warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected to prevail on average over central andeastern portions of Europe during summer 2017, including eastern France, Germany and northern Italy, as high pressure becomes a dominant climateinfluence.

Unusual warmthand dry conditions may also extend farther west to encompass most of western Europe, at times. A late May hot spell, with dry conditions over the Alps, is currently developing. While this is unlikely to persist at the same intensity during the first half of June, further periodic hot spells over western Europe are expected, especially in July and August. Confidence on the forecast is lower during the 1st half of the summer, as conflicting signals between various forecast indicators do not provide a clear picture, especially across north-western Europe.

Low pressure areas over the north Atlantic will bring a spell of quite wet and breezy conditions to the UK, western France, north-west Spain and western Scandinavia during the 1st half of June. However, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around western European will reduce the threat of any cool anomalies here. Very warm and dry conditions will be more prominent further south and east in first half of June. A north-westwards shift in the focus of the dry and very warm conditions to north-western Europe and Germany, becomes more likely during the second half of summer 2017. Solar output production will probably become far more dominant than wind production over Germany this summer.

After the very dry winter over much of the Alps (and with continued low river and reservoir levels), there is a robust signal for a drier than normal summer over much of the Alpine region. These dry conditions most likely to be most prolonged during the second half of summer. Rainfall is expected to be higher than the typically low seasonal norms from southern Italy across tothe southern Balkan region, with scattered thunderstorms here. Wet conditions are also expected over far north-east of Europe in response tovigorous westerly flow over northern Scandinavia in mid to late summer.

The slow and rather erratic development of a weak El Nino during this summer, combined with sea surface temperature patterns over the north Atlantic and a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in August, are some of the drivers for this forecast pattern. Confidence in the forecast is highest over central, southern and eastern Europe and lowest over north-western Europe.